Natasha Demkina, a young girl living in Saransk, Russia, began to receive a lot of media attention around the middle of last month. It started with an article in Pravda, which hailed her as the 'Girl with X-ray vision'. You see, Natasha possesses the unusual ability to peer through human flesh and spot diseases and injuries that are lurking unseen within people's bodies. Or, at least, this is what Pravda claimed. It didn't take long for more newspapers to catch onto the story. The British Sun has been the most relentless about pursuing it. They've actually flown Natasha to London and are now parading her around like some kind of weird curiosity. Does Natasha really have x-ray eyes? Well, I doubt it. But I'm sure The Sun is going to milk this for all it's worth.
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The next day, the doctor had a high-resolution scan on a 3d imager. Not one of the ailments Natasha mentioned showed up. (These included gallstones; unfortunately I can't remember the others.) However, the scans did show another problem, which Natasha didn't notice, which the doctor is now receiving attention for.
Once again Wiseman cheated by moving the goal posts....... and even then this girl scored 4 out of 7 and odds were 50 to 1....... did they conduct more test, did they treat her fairly not a chance they did. SCICOP are debunkers and will never be fair open and honest to a psychic
I don't have x-ray vision myself, but I CAN see aura's around people and I often can feel other people their feelings. Without prejudice.
I respect every one as the person they are, but that doesn't mean I musn't question their beliefs. It feels good to tell everyone about my experience, without losing respect. Their is more between heaven and earth! It's time we let go of our fears, because they cause the destruction of this world. We have to take risks, discover the unknown!
Byebye, Marlon
Randi tried it on TV in England a year ago and was a complete failure..... Cold reading does not compare to the real deal.......... And Natasha has proved in the that her Disgusting treatment did not stop her getting a 50 to 1 result......... way above chance and Wiseman has got himself into big trouble over his moving goal posts over it. He is now being discredited all over the world. See Professor Brian Josephsons website.......
http://www.csmmh.org/demkina
That was funny...
That well-known TV doctor in England still says Natasha Demkina's psychic diagnoses are amazingly accurate -- despite the fact that her reading of him scared him into getting a colonoscopy and other invasive and expensive medical tests, which showed the abnormalities Ms. Demkina "saw" were not there. I suspect they examined the wrong part of his anatomy.
I think things will become more clear when more cases like Natasha show up in the media. I'm certain that will happen sooner or later.
Bye bye
To get the first one precisely right (ie, matching the right person to precisely condition) is 1 in 7. You now have 6 people left. Picking another precisely is now 1 in 6, and so on ... 1 in 5 and 1 in 4.
A warning here: this is where they made their mistake This is NOT a lotto style draw. In which case she would only have had to pick the 4 people that had the 4 conditions, not which person had which condition.
Try it yourself. Take 7 scrabble tiles, letters 'A' through 'G'. Turn them face down and get someone to muddle them up. Pick a tile and predict what letter it is. Do that six more times. You may NOT guess the same letter twice. Record how many you get right out of 7. Now reset the game and try again and again, recording your results for each game. You could do that a hundred times and you'd never be able to get a count of 4 right (well, there is a slim chance).
The chance of getting 4 exactly right out of 7 in a blind non-return test is (1/7)*(1/6)*(1/5)*(1/4) = 1/840.
In addition to this rather rudimentary statistics, even if the result WERE 1 in 50 (which it is not) the result would still be significant, 2% likely, which is very low and not very likely by pure chance.
As I stated before, she was robbed.
I asked Ray Hyman, Ph.D., professor of psychology at the University of Oregon in Eugene, to help me correct Puck's confused thinking. Prof. Hyman did the original calculation of the odds for the Natasha Demkina test. Those calculations were later confirmed by Prof. Richard Wiseman and others -- including one of our critics, Nobel laureate physicist Brian Jospehson. Here is Prof. Hyman's reply, including reference works for those who would like to verify the calculations for themselves:
"Statistics and combinatorial probabilities can mislead even the brightest people into terrible boo-boos. In the present case, the self-assured critic has made two serious blunders. He has misconstrued the problem. The problem we are dealing with is known as the matching problem. The mathematics for calculating the correct odds is not self evident. Indeed, it is very complicated. I painstakingly worked out the correct probabilities using the formulae in Frederick Mosteller's Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability With Solutions. I believe this is still available from Dover Books. The critic might find it useful to carefully follow the argument in this book. My other source was Hoel, P.G., Port, S.C., and Stone, C.J. (1971). Introduction to Probability Theory. This latter source provides some useful approximations for those who do not have the patience to calculate the exact probabilities. Richard Wiseman was able to check my probability calculations using tables provided by the Journal of the Society for Psychical Research. Our probabilities agreed.
The second mistake this critic makes is to use the probability for getting exactly four correct matches. The number that is relevant for our test is the probability of getting four or more correct matches. Contrary to this persons assertion, the probability of getting exactly four matches in our test is .01533 and not 1/840 (.0012) as he claims. The relevant probability is the probability of getting four or more correct matches which is .01899 (rounded to .02 or 1 in 50).
"I do not have time to give a lesson in probability theory and the matching problem, but let me give a simple heuristic example of how this person's approach provides a misleading answer. Assume we have three subject with conditions A,B, and C. And assume that Natasha's corresponding matchings can be designated a, b, and c. A correct match would be one where she assigns a to A, or b to B, or c to C. For this simple example, we can enumerate all the possible matching attempts. Once we get to four or more subjects, the enumerations become unwieldy."
[continued]
"Here are all the possible matching attempts that Natasha could make in the present example:
Subjects:
Correct Probability
0 36.79%
1 36.81%
2 18.33%
3 6.25%
4 1.38%
5 0.42%
6 0.00%
7 0.02%
-------
Total 100.00%
Note: There is no chance of getting 6 right because in that case you would actually get all seven right.
The probability of Natasha getting 4 or more exactly right is 1.38 + 0.42 + 0.02 = 1.82% or 1 in 55. But that is if she had 7 medical conditions and 7 people to assign them to. There were only 6 conditions and 7 people (one person had no condition at all). When you redo the calculations with that information you get the following table:
Correct Probability
0 42.09%
1 36.74%
2 15.77%
3 4.37%
4 0.89%
5 0.12%
6 0.02%
-------
Total 100.00%
The probability of Natasha getting 4 or more conditions exactly right is 0.89 + 0.12 + 0.02 = 1.03% or 1 in 97.
In addition to this, there is scientific and statistical method to be considered. First is the 'null hypothesis', which in this case would state that, all things considered, Natasha is no different from any other person. To check this we run a test and we use an alpha level (a cut off point) to excluded the null hypothesis. The usual alpha level (commonly used in normal statistical analysis) is 5%. CSICOPS believed they set their alpha level at 0.44% (which was actually 0.14%) (at least 5 right out of a possible 6) which is extremely harsh in my opinion in either case.
Natasha achieved 1,82% on their table, actually 1.03% on my table (at least 4 right out of 6). That is extremely unlikely by pure chance if she is an ordinary person. The expected number of correct answers for a normal person would be no more than 2. Try it yourself and you will see. Either way it is better than 5%.
The calculations posted previously were erroneous, but the ones here have been double checked and I am very confident in them.
This is the program used to generate the tables in this letter (please consider it public domain):
----------------------------------------------------------------------
#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
int main(int argc, char *argv[]) {
int i;
int j;
int tmp;
int count;
int choice;
int actual[7];
int guess[7];
int result[8];
// Initialise
srand(time(NULL));
for (i = 0; i < 7; i++) {
actual = i + 1;
guess = i + 1;
result = 0;
}
result = 0;
// Play ten million guessing games
for (j = 0; j < 10000000; j++) {
// Randomise conditions (actual)
for (i = 0; i < 7; i++) {
choice = rand()%7;
tmp = actual[choice];
actual[choice] = actual;
actual = tmp;
}
// Randomise conditions (guess)
for (i = 0; i < 7; i++) {
choice = rand()%7;
tmp = guess[choice];
guess[choice] = guess;
guess = tmp;
}
// How many were right guesses?
count = 0;
for (i = 0; i < 6; i++) { // 6 conditions only
if (actual == guess)
count++;
}
// Record results
result[count]++;
}
for (i = 0; i < 8; i++) {
printf("=\t%8d\t%8.8g%%\n", i, result,
((float) result)/100000.0);
}
return 0;
}
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Natasha had to match 7 conditions to the 7 subjects, not 6. The 7th condition was "none of the specified target conditions." The odds, rounded off, of getting at least 4 matches correct are .02 or 1 in 50.
Puck is equally wrong to dispute the required level for passing which all parties in the test had agreed to 5 days prior to the test. The well-known principle, "unusual claims require unusual amounts of evidence," certainly applies here. In is not reasonable to use .05 as a maximum probability for passing with such a highly unlikely claim.
Furthermore, these odds are the odds for matching at least 4 conditions correctly by blind guessing. But Natasha wasn't blindly guessing. She had many clues that may have helped her increase her score of correct matches.
We wanted to conduct a truly blinded study, but for unexplained reasons, Natasha has to be able to see her subjects with normal vision. She can't use her "x-ray vision" in the dark. And, although her "x-ray vision" allegedly penetrates any kind of fabric worn by a person, for unknown reasons, she can't "see" through fabric if it's in front of a person (like a screen) instead of on the person. -- ASkolnick
If you aren't going to use scientific method then you can make any claim you like, which you have done. What would have been more fair was to let her try it 20 times with 20 groups of people. That's stats!
I did the test myself 6 times and got 3, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0. The 3 was a real fluke and it surprised me. I suggest that our readers try it for themselves and they will soon see.
The claim that "unusual claims require unusual amounts of evidence" is an attrociuos misuse of statistics and is unscientific. You can disprove anything using that premise just by setting your alpha level at an almost impossible level.
The chance of her getting 4 right out of 7 is about the same as winning on the long odds in a horse race (50 to 1).
Andrew Skolnick's alpha level around 0.5% (rounded up) or about 1 in 200. That is a mathematically provable fact. This isn't rocket science.
First Puck comes along and claims Natasha was "robbed" and that we're either idiots or trying to deceive you because the odds of her correctly guessing 4 or more matches was really 1 in 840.
Then he says it was 1 in 97.
Now, unable to deny that the actual odds are, as we reported, 1 in 50, he's switching his attack to claiming the passing score was set too high.
Puck, your opinion of whether the passing score, which was agreed to by Natasha and her represenetatives, was too high is no more credible than your previous false statements about the statistics. You best return here under a new screen name because this one has been pretty much discredited. --ASkolnick
Also, I believe that you were out of line, Andrew, for saying that Puck has been discredited. Just because he may be wrong about this problem doesn't mean that he's wrong about anything else.
When that claim was discredited, he claimed that the odds were 1 in 97. And finally, when he was compelled to admit that the odds we gave are correct, he made no apology for his false statements, nor withdrew his highly incendiary claim that Natasha was "robbed." Instead, he simply switched his argument to claiming that the test's "alpha level" was set too high. That, of course, is equally untrue.
Puck's position is that we're wrong about our statistics and he has resorted to several false arguments to promote that position. I don't know about you, but I try to learn from history. And what I've learned from Puck's past statements is that he is not a credible authority on statistics.
Credible people fit their opinions to the facts. People who are caught REPEATEDLY trying to twist the facts to support their opinion are simply not credible.
However...I think she has proved more than enough...And even IF she isn't able to get everything right under the conditions the scientist put her...her gift is still one to examine...because with her own method her readings are absolutely accurate. And so they would be very practical. And if it isn't paranormal but it works...then why not use it...ore are the billionindustries afraid that they will ceize to exist...I think that is one of the most likely reasons they don't want her gift to be recocnized...and it would be an " attack" on the thinking of almost every scientist and many other people.
I don't think believing in paranormal gifts has realy to do with your schooling...only in the way how open minded your schooling was...
Barbara Brennan holds a Master degree in Atmospheric Physics and worked years for Nasa. Besides that she holds a Doctorate of Philosophy and Theology. And she also believes you can see into the body. She can do it hereself and teaches it to others. Isn't it wonderful.
http://www.osac.state.or.us/oda/unaccredited.html
The State of Michigan also doesn't recognize degrees from this "university":
http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Non-accreditedSchools_78090_7.pdf
Greenwich University operated under a charter from the territorial government of Norfolk Island from June 1998 until Dec. 2, 2002, when the Australian Federal Government overrode the charter; the school now appears to be defunct.
http://www.dest.gov.au/highered/quality/greenwich.htm
Likewise, Brennan's own school, the "Barbara Brennan School of Healing" in Boca Raton, Florida, offers "bachelor degrees" even though it is NOT an accredited school!
Marlon thinks it's wonderful. I think it's:
Bogus: adj. Counterfeit or fake [From English "bogus," a device for making counterfeit money.]
ps.like i allways say opinin's are like asshole's.
But back to this issue, it's anyway import to discuss matters like these, like it's important to discuss everything "professional" doctor's do as well. I've seen good docs and bad docs, I've seen amzing wonders after surgery and amazing failures too. Some people reject everything in a person when not 100% evidence is given. That's a quote even doctor's cannot give. Natasha has everything to become a good docter, I hope she won't forget her special gift during her medicin study, since this study is so very theoretical.
I have to admid that I don't know what kind of University "Greenwich University" is. But if there are two states that don't recognize this University as real, and the rest does the univerisity can't be to bad, can it??
And I know that Brennan her school is not an University. But I know it is fully licensed! It is collage and in November, 2002 the Florida Commission for Independent Education granted BBSH approval to offer a Bachelor of Science degree in Brennan Healing Science.
http://www.barbarabrennan.com/bbsh/BACHELOR/BSdegreeInfo.html
I can understand if you don't find her psychic claims very credible. However, I think that if you would investigate her work more you will find her claims become more and more credible. I don't need her to prove that psychic vision etc. realy excist, because I have my own experiences with it.
Have a nice day
Marlon
I provided you with authoritative sources of information about that bogus school. You can't continue claiming ignorance in your defense of Barbara Brennan's bogus academic credentials. And please, her school is NOT accredited. The state of Florida can't accredit any school of higher education. Accreditation has to come from the Southern Association of Colleges and Schools, one of the six regional accreditation bodies in the U.S. And the Barbara Brennan School of Healing is NOT accredited.
The "BS degree" Barbara Brennan's school offers is as worthles as her own "Ph.D." from the unaccredited and defunct Greenwich University and her "D.Th." from Holos University, yet another unaccredited "diploma mill."
Is there a relationship between bogus degrees and bogus claims of psychic powers? Only a fool would not see the connection. People who would deceive others about their credentials would likely deceive others about the work they do.
Barbara Brennan holds a Master Degree in atmospheric physics. That is one thing. I do not know much about her other grades.
However, I Do know that her teachings are very usefull. I know that energy healing excist and work. I know that high sense perception is something real, because of my own experiences with it. I also know people with the same experiences.
At her school the studens must have a few high sense perception skills and healing skills before they are permitted to the next year (4 years). Why should a studend give his money away to something that is not real. If he doesn't have the skills he must have, he will know it himeself. However, she has over 1000 student and every year there are people graduating.
But...you don't have to believe it. I believe it...I know it...and I believe you will know it. If it is not know, that another time... There asre skeps that have made a turn of 180 degrees.
Byebye,
Marlon
Marlon, if you would inform yourself by going to either of the two government Web sites I cited, you would see that each year THOUSANDS of students give their money away for "Ph.D.s" and other degrees that are "not real."
Some don't realize that the "degrees" they are buying are bogus. Others don't care -- their intent is to "earn" academic credentials that will fool the uninformed.
You said, "Some don't realize that the "degrees" they are buying are bogus. Others don't care -- their intent is to "earn" academic credentials that will fool the uninformed."
I believe that the people you discribe excist.
However, I was talking about Barbara her own healing school. If you don't start feeling better during her programm, and if you don't start seeing and feeling the aura, and it's anatomy etc like she discripes it why should you then give your money to it...
I don't have the disire to prove to you the aura excists...I don't have the desire to defend her school...I only hope to help people by broading their vision, and I intent to do that with love. Because if I don't do something with love, that part that doesn't love is a part of a problem and not a solution.
Love and blessings,
Marlon
You asked why any student would throw their money away in a bogus degree program. I told you: some are too foolish to realize the degrees are bogus; others know, but they wish to deceive others by claiming to have academic credentials without actually earning them.
Such deceptive conduct doesn't bother you, although it clearly should.
So please don't keep claiming to be such an enlightened and spiritual person. Enlightened and spiritual people don't deceive or mislead others and they don't condone others who make a business by deceiving or misleading others.
You only focus on that "degrees" wich aren't recognized in some states. I admit that!!! And about her bachelor degree that isn't recognized... I couldn't find that on one of the sites but... I'm not talking about recordnizion anymore.
I am talking about what I have learned from Brennan and my own experiences with her teaching. And because of that experiences with it I respect her and her school.
I think I am spiritual because I try to be fair to myself with everything, sometimes I succeed in this, sometimes not... and I think being fair to yourself it the core of a spiritual life. Enlightened is something different but I think that in essence I am enlightened just like everyone else. I remember more and more...
And...now I am defending meself in kind of a way and I that wasn't what I wanted to do...
I want to be happy... rather than having the "right" on my side.
Have a nice evening,
Marlon
You've shown a willingness to dismiss facts that don't support your comforting beliefs -- such as the fact that people who proudly display bogus degrees, and in turn sell bogus degress to others, are not ethical people.
It's not so important what you or I believe. What is important is what you and I are able to prove with credible evidence. And the evidence you cited to defend your belief in Natasha Demkina's "X-ray vision" does not stand up to reasoned scrutiny.
Citing Barbara Brennan as an example of a real honest psychic only showed that you don't understand the difference between truth and fiction. Honest people don't use bogus degrees. That's a fact.
You say "being fair to yourself is the core to spiritual life." I say that is bilge. Being fair to others and to the truth is the core to spiritual life.
life."
You said is beautifully!
what really kills me about these scientists is the condesention and sarcasm that laces every word leaving their mouths on these matters.
just because you cant get your narrow mind around it doesnt mean its not true.
from the documentary its clear that she has helped people, whether it is a divine gift or intuition or just dumb luck, and that is what counts.
this world is cold enough....maybe some people just want something beyond that to believe in.
how many theories of days gone by that scientists thought were "right" and "factually true" has since been proved very much WRONG. the world is changing all the time and could it not be even remotely possible that our brains are too?? maybe some people can do things that others cant?? but in your worlds of statistics and clinicalism you cant expand your minds enough to even consider that. but thats your choice. instead you make comments which are dripping with disdain and clearly look down on those who choose to disagree with you.
for me the issue isnt whether she has a gift or not, it simply highlights the narrow-mindedness of many people.
its a pity really....but to each their own.
Of all the responses on this subject I find your response the most beautiful...without any doubt! "true, false, whatever.....all i have to say is that i pity people who can only see the world in black and white." I couldn't say it any better!
Wow!!
Marlon