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7 experts to be tried over failing to predict 2009 Italy quake
Posted: 21 September 2011 07:02 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
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Is there a web site that explains the limitations of the science of predicting earthquakes? I guess one limitation would be the fact The Earth is so incredibly big and the science has to cope with that.

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Posted: 21 September 2011 07:48 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
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Peter - 21 September 2011 07:02 PM

Is there a web site that explains the limitations of the science of predicting earthquakes? I guess one limitation would be the fact The Earth is so incredibly big and the science has to cope with that.

It basically comes down to the fact that there is no reliable known measurable precursor to major earthquakes.  Sometimes small tremors occur before a big earthquake, sometimes there are none before a big earthquake, sometimes there are small tremors but no following earthquake.  Sometimes radon gas is released before a big earthquake, sometimes there is none released before a big earthquake, sometimes there is radon gas released but there’s no following earthquake.  Sometimes the water table changes before a big earthquake, sometimes there is no change before a big earthquake, sometimes the water level changes but there’s no following earthquake.  The same with every other sign, such as animal behaviour.  All you can do is to work on probabilities.  You can often tell if an area is a place where an earthquake could happen, but that’s all that you can tell.

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Posted: 22 October 2012 11:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
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And BAM, Italy suffers from having no earthquake warnings at all. Who would want to ever work in that field again?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2012/10/22/italy-earthquake-scientists-trial.html

...
Seven scientists on trial for manslaughter linked to an earthquake in Italy that killed more than 300 people have been sentenced to six years in prison, a court has ruled.
...

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Posted: 22 October 2012 12:52 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 15 ]
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*pounds*

*head*

*against*

*desk*

The stupid.. it burns. It burns so much…

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Posted: 23 October 2012 07:06 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 16 ]
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I hope enough people in Italy protest against this. I certainly hope the higher court overturns this. Not only do these experts seem innocent but a lot of people could die because of this insane ruling.

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Posted: 23 October 2012 10:03 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 17 ]
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You can´t beat stupidity.

 

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Posted: 23 October 2012 04:00 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 18 ]
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Unfairly Balanced - 23 October 2012 10:03 AM

You can´t beat stupidity.

No, but maybe you *should*.. like, with a big stick…

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1: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. If it does what it says, you should have no problem with this.
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Posted: 25 October 2012 01:48 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 19 ]
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So now that these guys are in jail who are they going to blame for quakes in the future?  This is a perfect example of people who have no understanding of the physical sciences making a judgement in a case that requires such understanding.

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Posted: 25 October 2012 03:47 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 20 ]
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gray - 25 October 2012 01:48 AM

So now that these guys are in jail who are they going to blame for quakes in the future?  This is a perfect example of people who have no understanding of the physical sciences making a judgement in a case that requires such understanding.

Seems to be a growing problem across all sciences. We need Carl Sagan now more than ever.

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Posted: 28 October 2012 07:31 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 21 ]
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Peter - 25 October 2012 03:47 AM
gray - 25 October 2012 01:48 AM

So now that these guys are in jail who are they going to blame for quakes in the future?  This is a perfect example of people who have no understanding of the physical sciences making a judgement in a case that requires such understanding.

Seems to be a growing problem across all sciences. We need Carl Sagan now more than ever.

Neil Degrasse Tyson seems to be doing fairly well in that regard.

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1: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. If it does what it says, you should have no problem with this.
2: What proof will you accept that you are wrong? You ask us to change our mind, but we cannot change yours?
3: It is not our responsability to disprove your claims, but rather your responsability to prove them.
4. Personal testamonials are not proof.

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